Game 4 Odds: Aces vs. Sun
Just when you thought they were finished on OKBET Predictions, the Sun did what they had done all postseason and defied expectations to continue their postseason run. They looked great doing it, too, scoring a season-high 105 points and defeating the Aces by 29 points.
|Moneyline||-118 / -104|
|Time||4 p.m. ET|
Now the question is whether they have two more games like that in them, or if they used their best shot in that blowout Game 3 win. Let’s try to figure it out on OKBET Predictions.
The Las Vegas Aces
The Aces were beaten on the glass (38-24), in the paint (64-26), and were sloppier in Game 3. (14 turnovers compared to nine for the Sun). All of these are classic signs of one team being more focused and wanting it more than the other — a trope that I rarely use when projecting forward but think can be useful when looking back.
They talked about how difficult it can be to close out teams on the broadcast, and Game 3 proved to be just that for Las Vegas of OKBET Predictions. That will be the case again for Game 4, and it will be home cooking for the Sun, which several Connecticut players mentioned as making a big difference after a week and a half on the road.
In retrospect, it’s easy to see all of those factors and construct a narrative around that easy Sun Game 3 win. But, did the Aces actually play that much worse in Game 3, and were there actual changes made by the Sun that suggest Games 4 and possibly 5 might be genuinely different than their first two losses?
The Aces weren’t as bad as the 29-point deficit suggests at OKBET Predictions. The Aces offense was actually quite respectable (they had their best three-point shooting of the Finals, which should be noted), it was just that the Sun turned into literal fireballs.
Part of that may have been due to the Aces not providing the best defense in the paint all season, but the Sun have shown on several occasions in this era that once the train leaves the station in one of those games, there isn’t much that can be done to stop it.
The Connecticut Sun
In terms of the Sun at OKBET Predictions, the team did make one significant change, and it was in how they dealt with red-hot Chelsea Gray. The point guard scored 42 and 11 points in the first two games, respectively, and she was especially effective late, scoring 12 fourth-quarter points in those two games, more than any other player in the series.
The Sun put DeWanna Bonner and her 7-4 (!) wingspan on Gray in Game 3, and the results were noticeable. Gray’s points per game dropped from 21 to 11 in Game 3, and she couldn’t even get shots up, with her FGA dropping from 16.5 in the first two games to 7 in Game 3. She did have eight assists, but the move seemed to throw off the Aces’ previously smooth attack.
It wouldn’t have mattered in Game 3 at OKBET WNBA Predictions, but it could be crucial in what should be a close Game 4, given Gray’s incredible work against the Sun in the fourth quarters of Games 1 and 2, when she had more than twice as many points as any other player in the series.
On the other end of the court, the Sun did exactly what they decided to do in Game 4 of the semifinals against Chicago on the OKBET Predictions : they simply moved their entire attack into the paint. After previously setting the overall playoff record for points in the paint (66) in that win over the Sky, they now set the Finals record in Game 3 against the Aces (64).
Suddenly, the Aces, who were the third-best team in the WNBA regular season in terms of limiting points in the paint, appeared to be outmatched in every direction. Riquna Williams, a key component of their lethal smallball lineups, was a brutal (and game-low) -26 in her 12 minutes, and while one-game plus-minus stats aren’t to be trusted as a predictor of future performance, it certainly felt telling of the game’s overall story at OKBET Predictions.
Pick for WNBA Game 4 Aces-Sun
This game’s recommendation will be based on your position on OKBET. If you haven’t invested in this series yet, I like the Sun moneyline in Game 4. I may be overthinking things, but what I saw in Game 3 appears to be sustainable, albeit at a slightly lower level moving forward (i.e. don’t bet the Sun to score 100 points again).
I even like the Sun series price at +440, but I’m not going to add to my position because I’m already well positioned there at OKBET Predictions.
However the OKBET Predictions, I have been perplexed at times during this series, so if you tailed this column earlier and have a Sun series bet as well as a series over 4.5 games bet, I would consider slightly hedging. Personally, I’m looking for a half unit on the Aces. Again, if you’re not a hedger, no worries. I just felt this series was confusing enough at times that I wanted to reduce my risk a little.
Having said that, I will advise you as if you are a third party. I’m also going to include some player props because the books were kind enough to release them 24 hours ahead of time!
The Gray under logic is probably redundant to lay out here, and the Plum assist over is a bet I’ve made all three games this series and is 2-for-3 so far.
Sun -110 on the moneyline; Chelsea Gray under 18.5 points; Kelsey Plum over 4.5 assists
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